Democrats Nomination: the race is over

After primary upon primary, the race for the Democratic nomination finally seems to be drawing to an end. Like the race for the Premiership title between Chelsea and Manchester Utd, it too has gone down to the wire. Obama, rightly, is being called the presumptive nominee - it is his to lose now.

Clinton's recent victory in West Virginia was supposed to give her the defence that the 'tide is turning'; that she is the only Democrat standing that can beat McCain in November. Thankfully, its a ploy that isn't working.

Obama has recently been endorsed by John Edwards - a former contender for the Democratic nomination himself who dropped out of the race when he lost his home state of South Carolina to Barack Obama. Its difficult to tell just how much 'help' this particular endorsement will give Obama. On paper, which is really all that matters, Edwards is just another super-delegate vote that Obama will have that Clinton won't.

Speaking of super-delegates, winning a huge majority of them over, was Clinton's last throw of the dice. As of last week, Obama has long overtaken the number of pledged super-delegates that Clinton has secured. A couple of months ago he was about 100 super-delegates behind Clinton; but ahead of Clinton in the number of ordinary delegates by 100. Since then, Obama has managed to build upon his lead in both types of delegates.

It is unfortunate that Clinton has lost the way she did. She is right when she says that if the Democrats played by the same rules as the delegates - she would already be the nominee. But that's a big 'if'. Winning requires 'electioneering': you do what you can, you exploit what you can't. Things change - and if they aren't going as expected - you have to come up with a new plan. This is where Clinton fell. Riding high in the polls throughout 2007, she planned to have the nomination rapped up by Super-Tuesday. Her problem, in short, is that she mis-judged Obama.

Incidentally, I think I might just find myself in Denver where the Democratic Convention will take place in August. I will be in the US for some of August and I am crossing my fingers that I will be able to be there when Obama officially wins the nomination. I have a cousin who has already secured a place as a volunteer for that period and I am hoping that its not too late for me to follow suit.

Anyway, looking ahead to the general election in November, I have been dreading the Democrats' chances because of all this in-fighting as a result of a prolonged election. According to the polls, however, my feelings are unfounded. RealClear Politics has some very encouraging figures for Obama. My feelings were that in some of the big states that Clinton won, Obama wouldn't have as much support as he should have. The polls suggest however, that contrary to what most pundits are saying, most voters will not be siding for McCain because their preferred Democrat isn't on the ballot. Florida is an exception; but Obama is way ahead of McCain in important states including California and Pennsylvania (which I am very surprised about).

I do love electoral maps. Here's may favourite: